Gold market analysis

Gold price temporarily capped at $4,160  
February 7, 2026, 11:11 AM  

Friday marks the U.S. Independence Day holiday, and U.S. financial markets will be closed tomorrow. As a result, the originally scheduled June non-farm payroll report for this Friday has been moved forward to tomorrow. Yesterday's ADP employment data showed that private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 98,000 in June, below the expected 118,000 and May's figure of 122,000. Following the release, spot gold briefly tested $4,013 but held firmly above the strong Gann square 90-degree angle support level at $4,010. Subsequently, prices surged on comments from Federal Reserve Chair Wash, reaching a high of $4,114.86 before retreating, encountering resistance near the 135-degree angle at around $4,110. 

Wash said inflation expectations and risks have declined in recent weeks, reiterating the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. He emphasized that those who believe the central bank will tolerate inflation above 2% would be disappointed, as authorities will ensure price stability. He also expressed his personal hope for a smaller Fed balance sheet. Although he refrained from using the dot plot to signal interest rate direction, he indicated it would remain in place for the near term. 

Due to the disappointing June employment data released by ADP, the market generally expects tonight's non-farm payroll figures from the Labor Department to also fall short of expectations, supporting a stronger gold price. On the hourly chart, after hitting a low of $3,943 on June 30, gold has been rallying repeatedly, although volatility has intensified. According to wave analysis, gold is likely in the third wave, with an immediate upside target at $4,155—very close to the 50% retracement level of the largest decline since June 18, which stands at $4,162.9. Therefore, this level can be considered the key short-term resistance. However, it should be noted that if the non-farm data comes in strong, gold could sharply decline, potentially finding a bottom only next Monday before rebounding, increasing the risk of another drop below $4,000. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.