Gold market analysis

"Gold Price Forms Double Bottom, Rebound Expected If Not Broken" – Completed on 25/6/2026 at 11:05  
The gold price has continued its decline, with spot gold falling below the $4,000 level and dropping as low as $3,959.38 before rebounding to $4,018.74. However, it ultimately failed to hold above $4,000, prompting another drop, with today's lowest point reaching $3,963.86. On the daily chart, the price movement shows a divergence with the 9RSI, forming a double bottom pattern. The corresponding 9RSI reading at the previous low was 17, suggesting a strong rebound wave is likely, as previously forecasted. The high of the June 17 rebound at $4,382.85 is now viewed as the neckline and potential target for this upward move. 

On the hourly chart, yesterday's gold rebound failed to break above the 20-period SMA (currently around 4017), which has clearly become the main resistance level for recent rebounds. After another decline, the price formed a small double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential intraday rally. If today's low does not fall below yesterday's low of $3959, a third wave could emerge in the short term. Assuming this third wave equals 1.618 times the first wave, gold could rise to $4060.49, approaching closely the 50-period SMA on the hourly chart (currently around $4077), where significant selling pressure is expected. However, at that point, $4010 is likely to re-emerge as a strong support level. 

If gold prices continue to decline, a strong rebound is expected only by next Monday. Also note that if gold closes below $4,550.5 this month, all gains since the beginning of the year will be erased. Since 2016, this has occurred only in 2021 and 2022, and gold subsequently showed weak performance. The 20SMA on the monthly chart (currently around $3,752) remains a key long-term support level. If gold retraces 38.2% of its largest gain since 2016, it would fall to $3,857.65—close to the 20SMA. Gold could then hold above the monthly 20SMA and initiate a recovery rally. However, it is unlikely that gold will reach new highs in the coming years. 

The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.